The recent global fund flow data suggests that one big cycle of foreign fund allocation into India may have come to an end and the trend could remain soft for a longer time, according to a report by Elara Capital. The note said last week's outflow of $302 million from India's dedicated funds is the largest since June 2022.
After climbing to a record high of Rs 523 on September 30, shares of commodity major Vedanta have come off over 15 per cent amid a fall in the overall markets. The Anil Agarwal-led firm's latest slump comes after its stock price doubled over the past one year. Is it a blip or a trend reversal?
India Inc continued to grapple with muted revenue growth in the September 2024 quarter (Q2FY25) and witnessed a decline in margins and profits. The headwinds were especially severe for non-financial companies, while banking, financial services, and insurance (BFSI) firms significantly outpaced the rest of the corporate sector. The total profit of 1,353 listed companies that have released their Q2FY25 results thus far dropped by 0.6 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) - the first cumulative earnings decline in eight quarters.
After a brutal selloff since October, foreign portfolio investor (FPI) flows for the year-to-date (YTD) in 2024 have turned negative. In early September, YTD FPI investments peaked at a record Rs 22,000 crore ($2.6 billion). This wave of selling has also pulled down benchmark indices, with the Nifty's YTD returns declining to 11 per cent from their high of 21 per cent in September.
'The problem is that the bubble may not only be in valuations, but also in investors' minds.'
The calendar year 2024 is set to go down as the best year for initial public offerings (IPOs) in terms of funds raised. Following the IPOs of food delivery major Swiggy and two other companies slated for next week, this year's total will reach nearly Rs 1.2 trillion, going past 2021's record tally of Rs 1.19 trillion. Swiggy's Rs 11,327 crore IPO, the sixth-largest in India, and solar energy firm Acme Solar Holdings' Rs 2,900 crore IPO opened on Wednesday (Nov 6), while health-tech firm Sagility India's Rs 2,106 crore IPO opened a day earlier.
The advance/decline ratio (ADR) - a gauge of market breadth - has remained negative (below 1) for a second consecutive month. In other words, the number of stocks declining is outpacing those rising, as a brutal selloff by overseas investors and lofty valuations weigh on sentiment. According to BSE data, the ADR for October stands at 0.98 for the second month in a row.
There has been a sharp slowdown in revenue and profit growth in the cement sector in recent quarters but it is yet to show in the share prices of cement companies. On the contrary, there has been a rally in cement stocks and a re-rating of their equity valuation in the past three years despite an earnings contraction during the period.
'The economy is clearly at a very soft spot, and earnings growth is disappointing every day.' 'After three great years, the Indian economy has hit a rough patch.'
Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have net sold domestic shares worth over $10 billion so far this month amid a shift to China, which not only offers attractive valuations compared to India but has also announced several measures to support the economy and the stock market in recent weeks. If the trend doesn't reverse, this will be the first time that overseas funds will yank out more than $10 billion from Indian equity markets in a month.
On a five-day rolling basis, FPI selling is the highest in 24 years.
Companies in the banking, finance sector and insurance (BFSI) sector have underperformed on the bourses despite leading the earnings growth charts in the post-pandemic period. This has created a dichotomy between their earnings and share prices. BFSI companies have never been less expensive than the rest of the equity market.
IPOs worth Rs 50,000 crore including Hyundai, NTPC Green Energy and Swiggy are set to hit the market in late October or early November.
India's financial sector is dominated by large government-owned and private-sector banks.
'IPOs have performed exceptionally well, with a notable increase in average ticket size from Rs 800 crore in the last financial year to around Rs 1,300 crore in this financial year.'
The last four years, the best for corporate profits in a long time, have not been as impressive for corporate capital expenditure. The combined net profits of India's top listed companies excluding banks, financial services, and insurance (BFSI) increased at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 32.4 per cent since FY20, a sharp jump from the 7.4 per cent in corporate earnings between FY14 and FY19.
During the first eight months of CY24, 50 IPOs mobilised Rs 53,453 crore.
With new eligibility criteria for futures and options (F&O) coming into effect, Jio Financial Services and Zomato are strong contenders for inclusion in the derivatives segment, according to an analysis by Nuvama Alternative & Quantitative Research. The report suggests that these new F&O inclusions could also propel these two companies into the benchmark National Stock Exchange Nifty 50 during the March rebalancing.
The IPO filing-to-approval lapsing ratio this year is the best in three years, underscoring the improvement in the IPO market's buoyancy.
The total number of demat accounts in the country stood at 171.1 million as of August 31.
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